{"id":96978,"date":"2020-04-28T12:00:01","date_gmt":"2020-04-28T08:00:01","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T20:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/?p=96978","title":{"rendered":"ASA-n\u0131n pandemiyan\u0131n d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyyat\u0131na v\u0259 s\u0131\u011forta sektoruna t\u0259sirin\u0259 dair proqnozlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Öt\u0259n ilin dekabr ay\u0131nda ilk d\u0259f\u0259 Çind\u0259 özünü göst\u0259r\u0259n v\u0259 COV\u0130D-19 pandemiyas\u0131 ad\u0131n\u0131 alan virus hal – haz\u0131rda bütün dünyada yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Virusun mövcudlu\u011fu yaln\u0131z insanlar\u0131n h\u0259yat\u0131 üçün t\u0259hlük\u0259 yaratmad\u0131, eyni zamanda ölk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadiyyat\u0131na da öz m\u0259nfi t\u0259sirini göst\u0259rdi. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Qlobal iqtisadiyyata yaranan v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259n v\u0259 hadis\u0259l\u0259rin say\u0131ndan daha çox koronavirusdan qorxan insanlar\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti t\u0259sir göst\u0259rdi. Bel\u0259ki, virus qlobal iqtisadiyyatda t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klifin dinamikas\u0131n\u0131n d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b oldu. Bir çox m\u0259hsullara olan t\u0259l\u0259bd\u0259 art\u0131m mü\u015fahid\u0259 edildiyi halda, b\u0259zil\u0259rind\u0259 is\u0259 k\u0259skin azalma dinamikas\u0131 özünü göst\u0259rdi. T\u0259klifin azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olan \u0259sas faktorlardan biri dün\u0259n\u0259 kimi istehsal\u0131n 25%- ni qar\u015f\u0131layan v\u0259 t\u0259darük z\u0259ncirinin \u0259n mühüm halqas\u0131 olan Çind\u0259 istehsal\u0131n dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n

Pandemiyan\u0131n yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t bütün ölk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadiyyat\u0131na xüsusil\u0259 d\u0259 Avropan\u0131n c\u0259nubuna (AB\u015e-dan sonra) daha çox m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir göst\u0259rdi.
\nEkspertl\u0259rin fikirl\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259 Almaniya bu müdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 itirdiyi m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fi ma\u015f\u0131n ixracat\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri art\u0131rmaqla kompensasiya ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yi halda, iqtisadiyat\u0131n\u0131n böyük bir hiss\u0259sini turizm t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259n \u0130spaniya v\u0259 \u0130taliya üçün is\u0259 h\u0259min m\u0259bl\u0259\u011f geri qaytar\u0131lmayacaq \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 itirilmi\u015fdir.<\/p>\n

\u0130taliya iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda is\u0259 mövcud v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u0259slind\u0259 ill\u0259rdir ki, davam edirdi. Böhrandan \u0259vv\u0259l i\u015fsizlik nisb\u0259ti 9,8% idi. Dövl\u0259t borcunun çox olmas\u0131, ÜDM-in 138% olmas\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. \u0130taliya \u0130qtisadiyyat Nazirliyi il \u0259rzind\u0259 ÜDM-in daha 6% azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r.
\nEyni v\u0259ziyy\u0259t i\u015fl\u0259m\u0259y\u0259n hava limanlar\u0131na v\u0259 göst\u0259rilm\u0259y\u0259n xidm\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 d\u0259 aiddir (restoran, istirah\u0259t m\u0259kanlar\u0131 v\u0259 s). AB-nin xidm\u0259tl\u0259r sektorunda \u0259halinin 73% -i i\u015fl\u0259yir ki, bu ÜDM-in 62% -ni t\u0259\u015fkil edir. Buna gör\u0259, s\u0259rt karantin n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r davam ed\u0259rs\u0259, t\u0259n\u0259zzül bir o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259rin ola bil\u0259r. Bugün\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r Avropa Komissiyas\u0131n\u0131n proqnozlar\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, 2020-ci ild\u0259 Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n ÜDM-d\u0259 gözl\u0259nil\u0259n art\u0131m \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 1% azalma olacaq, lakin bu bir q\u0259d\u0259r nikbin proqnozdur.<\/p>\n

\u0130nki\u015faf etmi\u015f iqtisadiyyata malik olan ölk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n böyüm\u0259 proqnozunun 1.3%-d\u0259n 1%-\u0259, AB\u015e-da 1.7%-d\u0259n 1.5%-\u0259, Yaponyada 0.3%-d\u0259n 0-a, Almaniyada 1%-d\u0259n 0.3%-\u0259, \u0130ngilt\u0259r\u0259d\u0259 1%-d\u0259n 0.9%-\u0259, Fransa 1.3%-d\u0259n 1.1%-\u0259, \u0130taliyada is\u0259 0.5%-d\u0259n m\u0259nfi 0.5%-\u0259 , Rusiyada 1.5%-d\u0259n 1.3%-\u0259, Türkiy\u0259d\u0259 2.5%-\u0259 endiyi bildirilir.
\nHal – haz\u0131rda bütün höküm\u0259tl\u0259rin \u0259sas h\u0259d\u0259fi insanlar\u0131n h\u0259yatlar\u0131n\u0131 xilas etm\u0259kl\u0259 iqtisadiyyatda q\u0259na\u0259t etm\u0259k aras\u0131ndak\u0131 tarazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tap\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ümumi hesablamalara gör\u0259 2020-ci ild\u0259 dünya üzr\u0259 ÜDM – d\u0259 6% – 15%  aras\u0131nda bir azalma proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Davam ed\u0259n karantin v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti ölk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n dördd\u0259 bir hiss\u0259sinin itkisi dem\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n

Epidemiya \u0259n çox turizm sektoru v\u0259 otell\u0259r\u0259 m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir göst\u0259rdi, bu sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 itki dem\u0259k olar ki, 90% h\u0259tta 100% il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ndi.<\/p>\n

Dünya s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131nda COV\u0130D-19 epidemiyas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ölk\u0259l\u0259raras\u0131 s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259rin ba\u011flanmas\u0131, ticar\u0259t v\u0259 turizm \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rinin k\u0259silm\u0259si böyük h\u0259cmd\u0259 pul v\u0259saitinin itirilm\u0259si il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ndi. T\u0259bii ki, pandemiya maliyy\u0259 bazar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259rkib hiss\u0259si olan s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131na da t\u0259sirsiz ötü\u015fm\u0259di. Düzdür, s\u0131\u011forta \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259ri yaranm\u0131\u015f v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 maliyy\u0259 sabitliyini qoruyub saxlamaq v\u0259 bu dövrü minimum z\u0259r\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u015fa vurmaq üçün müxt\u0259lif t\u0259dbirl\u0259r h\u0259yata keçirirl\u0259r. Buna baxmayaraq müxt\u0259lif növ s\u0131\u011forta m\u0259hslullar\u0131 üzr\u0259 f\u0259rqli h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t dinamikalar\u0131 mü\u015fahid\u0259 olundu. S\u0131\u011forta m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n bir hiss\u0259sinin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sür\u0259tli templ\u0259 azalma görüldüyü halda, b\u0259zi m\u0259hsullarda çox az d\u0259yi\u015fiklik ba\u015f verdi.<\/p>\n

Koronavirus infeksiyas\u0131 ekspertl\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 2020-ci il üzr\u0259 veril\u0259n proqnozlar\u0131n m\u0259cburi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirilm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b oldu . \u018fg\u0259r ekspertl\u0259r\u0259 gör\u0259 cari il üçün dünya s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131nda 6-7%-lik bir art\u0131m gözl\u0259nilirdis\u0259 (h\u0259yat s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 istisna olmaqla), indiki v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 n\u0259inki s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131nda, h\u0259mçinin dünya bazar\u0131nda da azalma mü\u015fahid\u0259 oluna bil\u0259r. Bu azalma daha böyük iqtisadiyyata v\u0259 \u0259haliy\u0259 malik olan ölkl\u0259rd\u0259 özünü daha qabar\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 biruz\u0259 ver\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Eyni zamanda dünya s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131na v\u0259 ekspertl\u0259rin analizl\u0259rin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r salsaq gör\u0259rik ki, COV\u0130D-19 epidemiyas\u0131 icbari s\u0131\u011forta m\u0259hsullar\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n daha çox könüllü s\u0131\u011forta m\u0259hsullar\u0131 bazar\u0131na m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir ed\u0259 bil\u0259r. 
\nBütün dünyada koronavirus infeksiyas\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131na qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259yata keçiril\u0259n qabaqlay\u0131c\u0131 t\u0259dbirl\u0259r ç\u0259rçiv\u0259sind\u0259 insanlar\u0131n evd\u0259 qalmas\u0131 v\u0259 f\u0259aliy\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 evl\u0259rind\u0259 davam etm\u0259si üçün müxt\u0259lif add\u0131mlar at\u0131l\u0131r. Bel\u0259 bir v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 s\u0131\u011forta sektorunda çal\u0131\u015fan \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131n i\u015fl\u0259rin\u0259 evl\u0259rind\u0259n davam etm\u0259si v\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi ofisl\u0259rin ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 s\u0131\u011forta \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rinin f\u0259aliyy\u0259tl\u0259rinin elektronla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na v\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flarla “face-to-face” \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rinin nisb\u0259t\u0259n azalmas\u0131na g\u0259tirib ç\u0131xardacaq. Türkiy\u0259 S\u0131\u011forta Birliyinin (TSB) r\u0259hb\u0259ri Atilla Benli verdiyi müsahib\u0259d\u0259 bildirib ki, \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rin f\u0259aliyy\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 evl\u0259rind\u0259n davam etm\u0259si korporativ mü\u015ft\u0259ril\u0259r üçün t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n v\u0259 dünya ölk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 geni\u015f istifad\u0259 edil\u0259n Kiber T\u0259hlük\u0259sizlik S\u0131\u011fortas\u0131na olan t\u0259labat\u0131n artmas\u0131na g\u0259tirib ç\u0131xaracaq. Eyni zamanda iqtisadiyyat\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 v\u0259 istehlak x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131 kredit s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131na olan t\u0259l\u0259bin d\u0259 artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 artan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259siri bir o q\u0259d\u0259r böyük olacaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Rusiya S\u0131\u011fortaç\u0131lar Birliyinin prezidenti \u0130qor Yurgensin fikirl\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259 s\u0131\u011forta bazar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015ftirakç\u0131lar\u0131 pandemiyadan birba\u015fa z\u0259r\u0259r görm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r, lakin dolay\u0131 t\u0259sirl\u0259r qaç\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. M\u0259hz bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n b\u0259zi \u0259razil\u0259rd\u0259 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n dü\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 dolay\u0131 itkil\u0259r 50% – i keçib.
\nRus ekspertl\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259 – Bu ssenarinin inki\u015faf\u0131 il\u0259 icbari f\u0259rdi q\u0259za v\u0259 x\u0259st\u0259lik hallar\u0131ndan s\u0131\u011forta \u0259n h\u0259ssas seqment olacaq – bu sah\u0259d\u0259 25% azalma mü\u015fahid\u0259 oluna bil\u0259r. Könüllü tibbi s\u0131\u011forta, \u0259mlak s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 v\u0259 h\u0259yat s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131nda haqlar daha 20% azalacaq. Avtomobill\u0259rin icbari s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üzr\u0259 r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 k\u0259skin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259 mü\u015fahid\u0259 edilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n

T\u0259hlilçil\u0259r s\u0131\u011forta haqlar\u0131nda k\u0259skin azalman\u0131 istisna etmirl\u0259r: h\u0259yat s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üçün 40%, icbari f\u0259rdi q\u0259za v\u0259 x\u0259st\u0259lik s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üçün 35%, fiziki \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r üçün tibbi s\u0131\u011forta v\u0259 \u0259mlak s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üçün 30% -\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r azalma mü\u015fahid\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259r. Kasko s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üzr\u0259 25% azalma özünü göst\u0259r\u0259 bil\u0259r, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n avton\u0259qliyyat vasit\u0259si sahibl\u0259rinin mülki m\u0259suliyy\u0259tinin icbari s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131 üzr\u0259 toplanan haqlar\u0131n h\u0259cmi bu növün m\u0259cburi olmas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 azalmayacaq.<\/p>\n

T\u0259bii ki, yuxar\u0131da qeyd olunanlar “Ekspert-RA”-n\u0131n proqnozudur. V\u0259 bir çox \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 gör\u0259 bu proqnozlar pessimistdir. Ölk\u0259l\u0259rin iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda ba\u015f ver\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k növb\u0259ti d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r\u0259 post pandemiya dövründ\u0259 at\u0131lan add\u0131mlar da öz t\u0259sirini göst\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Öt\u0259n ilin dekabr ay\u0131nda ilk d\u0259f\u0259 Çind\u0259 özünü göst\u0259r\u0259n v\u0259 COV\u0130D-19 pandemiyas\u0131 ad\u0131n\u0131 alan virus hal – haz\u0131rda bütün dünyada yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Virusun mövcudlu\u011fu yaln\u0131z insanlar\u0131n h\u0259yat\u0131 üçün t\u0259hlük\u0259 yaratmad\u0131, eyni…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":251278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=96978"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96978\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/251278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=96978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=96978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=96978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}