{"id":74245,"date":"2019-01-29T14:55:39","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T10:55:39","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T20:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/?p=74245","title":{"rendered":"Manat ucuzla\u015facaqm\u0131?- Ekspert<\/b><\/font>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bir neç\u0259 gün önc\u0259 S&P Global Ratings agentliyi Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n reytinqini növb\u0259ti d\u0259f\u0259 t\u0259sdiq edib. Agentliyin aç\u0131qlamas\u0131nda ölk\u0259nin iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 gözl\u0259ntil\u0259r v\u0259 narahatç\u0131l\u0131qlar \u0259ksini tap\u0131b. Bu narahatç\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n n\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259t olmas\u0131n\u0131 növb\u0259ti statusda qeyd ed\u0259c\u0259yik. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu sözl\u0259ri iqdisadç\u0131 Samir \u018fliyev deyib. Ekspertin sözl\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259, haz\u0131rda c\u0259miyy\u0259tin \u0259sas diqq\u0259ti Agentliyin manat\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozunad\u0131r: "Proqnoza gör\u0259, bu il manat\u0131n dollara n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si 1,79, 2020-ci ild\u0259 1,87, 2021-ci ild\u0259 is\u0259 1,97 olacaq. Y\u0259ni ucuzla\u015fma uy\u011fun olaraq 5,3%, 4,5% v\u0259 5,4% olacaq. Bir sözl\u0259, Agentliy\u0259 inansaq, 2019-2021-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 manat dollar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u0259y\u0259rini 15,9% itir\u0259c\u0259k. Bu, proqnoz n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 reald\u0131r?
\n\u018fvv\u0259lc\u0259 onu dey\u0259k ki, beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n proqnozlar\u0131 mövcud \u015f\u0259rait\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n t\u0259rtib edilir v\u0259 il \u0259rzind\u0259 bir neç\u0259 d\u0259f\u0259 yenil\u0259nir. BVF v\u0259 dig\u0259r maliyy\u0259 institutlar\u0131n\u0131n timsal\u0131nda bunu görm\u0259k olur. Buna s\u0259b\u0259b dünya ba\u015f ver\u0259n gözl\u0259nilm\u0259z siyasi, iqtisadi hadis\u0259l\u0259rdir. Bu bax\u0131mdan S&P Global Ratings agentliyinin proqnozu da möcvud iqtisadi \u015f\u0259rait kontekstind\u0259 bax\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r v\u0259 onun d\u0259yi\u015film\u0259si ehtimal\u0131n\u0131 mümkün saymaq laz\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu proqnoz n\u0259 d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 reald\u0131r? Yen\u0259 h\u0259r \u015fey neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq. Agentlik hesab edir ki, 2019-cu ild\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti 2018-ci ill\u0259 müqayis\u0259d\u0259 24% ucuzla\u015facaq v\u0259 proqnozu da neft qiym\u0259tinin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131na \u0259saslan\u0131b. \u018fg\u0259r neftin qiym\u0259ti bahala\u015facaqsa v\u0259 bu h\u0259dd 70 dollardan yüks\u0259k olacaqsa, manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sind\u0259 ucuzla\u015fma ehtimal\u0131 çox a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Hökum\u0259t ucuzla\u015fman\u0131 ancaq ixrac\u0131 stimulla\u015fd\u0131rmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259ki Az\u0259rbaycan üçün aktual deyil. Çünki mövcud qeyri-neft ixrac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n z\u0259if olmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259b\u0259bi milli valyutan\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si deyil. \u018fg\u0259r neft 30-40 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 dü\u015f\u0259c\u0259ks\u0259, bu halda manat\u0131n k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank 2015-ci ild\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. \u018fn yax\u015f\u0131 halda bazara q\u0131samüdd\u0259tli d\u0259st\u0259k ver\u0259c\u0259k. Neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 uzunmüdd\u0259tli olacaqsa növb\u0259ti ucuzla\u015fma qaç\u0131lmazd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

H\u0259r bir halda Agentliyin proqnozuna neftin qiym\u0259tinin proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 (24%) ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 kontekstind\u0259 baxmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Qeyd etm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r ki, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank birm\u0259nal\u0131 olaraq manat\u0131n sabitliyind\u0259 maraql\u0131d\u0131r. Bunu maliyy\u0259 sektorunun, o cüml\u0259d\u0259n bank sektorunun v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti diqt\u0259 edir. Bank sektorunda dollarla\u015fman\u0131n yüks\u0259k olaraq qalmas\u0131 devalvasiyan\u0131n onlar üçün öldürü olmas\u0131 il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259n\u0259 bil\u0259r. Depozitl\u0259rin kreditl\u0259ri üst\u0259l\u0259m\u0259si s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n bank sektorunda yaranm\u0131\u015f izafi likvidlik m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259nin sabitliyinin vacibliyini bir daha z\u0259ruri edir. Bu bax\u0131mdan M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank fors-major ba\u015f verm\u0259zs\u0259, \u0259n az\u0131 bu il manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sini d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 c\u0259hd etm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Növb\u0259ti ill\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 neftin indiki qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri h\u0259ddind\u0259 qeyri-neft ixrac\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131m tempind\u0259n v\u0259 bank sektorunun sa\u011flamla\u015fma s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olaraq d\u0259yi\u015fiklik mümkündür".<\/p>\n

Emin<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bir neç\u0259 gün önc\u0259 S&P Global Ratings agentliyi Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n reytinqini növb\u0259ti d\u0259f\u0259 t\u0259sdiq edib. Agentliyin aç\u0131qlamas\u0131nda ölk\u0259nin iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 gözl\u0259ntil\u0259r v\u0259 narahatç\u0131l\u0131qlar \u0259ksini tap\u0131b. Bu narahatç\u0131l\u0131qlar\u0131n n\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259t…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":251278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=74245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74245\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/251278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=74245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=74245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=74245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}