{"id":72862,"date":"2018-12-26T13:57:59","date_gmt":"2018-12-26T09:57:59","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T20:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/?p=72862","title":{"rendered":"\u201cNeftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 fiskal bax\u0131mdan bizim \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lveri\u015fli deyil\u201d <\/b><\/font>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vüqar Bayramov: “G\u0259l\u0259n il büdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin formala\u015fmas\u0131nda neftin dünya bazar qiym\u0259ti h\u0259lledici olaraq qalacaq”
\nVüsal\u0259 \u018fhm\u0259dova: “Qiym\u0259t azalmas\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u0259b\u0259bi d\u0259 2019-cu ild\u0259 dünyada neft\u0259 olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r”
\nElçin Bayraml\u0131: “\u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, bu tendensiyan\u0131n davam etm\u0259si biz\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259r vurur, g\u0259lirl\u0259rimiz azal\u0131r”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dövl\u0259t büdc\u0259sind\u0259 Brent markal\u0131 neftin bir barrelinin qiym\u0259ti 60 dollar  n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulub. Dün\u0259n dünya bazar\u0131nda bu göst\u0259rici 48 dollarad\u0259k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dü\u015füb. B\u0259s, neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 büdc\u0259y\u0259 v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 n\u0259 kimi t\u0259sirl\u0259ri ola bil\u0259r? Növb\u0259ti ild\u0259 art\u0131m gözl\u0259nilirmi?
\nMövzu il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 “Üç nöqt\u0259”y\u0259 aç\u0131qlama ver\u0259n iqtisadç\u0131-alim Vüqar Bayramov bildirdi ki, Federal Ehtiyatlar Sisteminin (FED) uçot stavkas\u0131n\u0131n yüks\u0259ltm\u0259si neft bazar\u0131na t\u0259zyiqi daha da art\u0131rd\u0131. Brent markal\u0131 neftin h\u0259r barrelinin qiym\u0259ti 48 dollarad\u0259k azald\u0131qdan sonra stabillik mü\u015fahid\u0259 olunsa da, bunun uzun müdd\u0259tli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 söyl\u0259m\u0259k ç\u0259tindir: “G\u0259l\u0259n ilin büdc\u0259sind\u0259 neftin bir barrelinin qiym\u0259tinin 60 dollardan hesabland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 ald\u0131qda neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 fiskal bax\u0131mdan bizim üçün \u0259lveri\u015fli deyil”.<\/p>\n

V.Bayramovun sözl\u0259rin\u0259 gör\u0259, neftin mövcud qiym\u0259ti h\u0259tta 2018-ci ilin büdc\u0259sind\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan qiym\u0259td\u0259n d\u0259 azd\u0131r: \"\"“Do\u011frudur, bu il neftin orta qiym\u0259ti kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r yüks\u0259k oldu\u011fundan bazardak\u0131 son eni\u015fl\u0259r 2018-ci il büdc\u0259sinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir etmir. Bununla bel\u0259, g\u0259l\u0259n il büdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin formala\u015fmas\u0131nda neftin dünya bazar qiym\u0259ti h\u0259lledici olaraq qalacaq. FED 0.25 faizlik art\u0131m il\u0259 bazarda \u015fok yaratmama\u011fa çal\u0131\u015fsa da, son q\u0259rar inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan ölk\u0259l\u0259rin v\u0259 el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 bizim valyuta bazar\u0131m\u0131za psixoloji t\u0259sir göst\u0259rm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Avropa Birliyi büdc\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u0130taliya il\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n raz\u0131l\u0131q avroya mü\u0259yy\u0259n n\u0259f\u0259s vers\u0259 d\u0259, avrozonadak\u0131 nümayi\u015fl\u0259r köhn\u0259 qit\u0259nin vahid valyutas\u0131n\u0131n möhk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259 imkan vermir”.<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisadç\u0131-alim onu qeyd etdi ki, qlobal bazarlar da ili qeyri-mü\u0259yy\u0259nlikl\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u015fa vurmaqdad\u0131rlar: “Beyn\u0259lxalq maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131 g\u0259l\u0259n il üçün qlobal iqtisadi art\u0131m faizini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131qlar\u0131 üçün g\u0259l\u0259n il dünya \u0259mt\u0259\u0259 v\u0259 valyuta bazarlar\u0131nda qeyri-mü\u0259yy\u0259nlikl\u0259rin davam ed\u0259c\u0259yi gözl\u0259nilir”.<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisadç\u0131-ekspert Vüsal\u0259 \u018fhm\u0259dova is\u0259 bildirdi ki, neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri yenid\u0259n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 8% a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dü\u015fdü v\u0259 Brent markal\u0131 neftin bir barreli 48,98 dollara t\u0259klif olundu. \"\"Oktyabr ay\u0131ndak\u0131 yüks\u0259li\u015fin ard\u0131ndan bu eni\u015f dem\u0259k olar 40% t\u0259\u015fkil edir: “Qiym\u0259t azalmalar\u0131 bir s\u0131ra faktorlara ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130lk olaraq buna AB\u015e-da hasilat\u0131n artmas\u0131 göst\u0259ril\u0259 bil\u0259r. Noyabr ay\u0131 üzr\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n ortalama neft hasilat\u0131 sutkada 11,6 milyon barrel t\u0259\u015fkil edirdi. Bu r\u0259q\u0259m qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin dü\u015fm\u0259sini bir bax\u0131ma sür\u0259tl\u0259ndirdi. Dekabr ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan etibar\u0259n AB\u015e-\u0131n xam neft ehtiyatlar\u0131nda \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131m oldu\u011fu görünür. Haz\u0131rda OPEK t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n sutkal\u0131q hasilat\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 is\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 bir o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 t\u0259sir etm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k”.<\/p>\n

V. \u018fhm\u0259dova \u015fist neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n 2019-cu ild\u0259 d\u0259 bazara hakim olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 azalman\u0131n davam ed\u0259c\u0259yini dü\u015fünür. Bildirir ki, 2019-cu il üçün \u015fist neft istehsal\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131m proqnozu çox güclüdür: “M\u0259nc\u0259, bunun üçün DUC (qaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, lakin tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f quyular) say\u0131na diqq\u0259t yetirm\u0259k kifay\u0259tdir. DUC-lar \u0259slind\u0259 istifad\u0259 edilm\u0259mi\u015f istehsal potensial\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259msil edir ki, onlar da tez bir zamanda minimal x\u0259rcl\u0259rl\u0259 istismara aç\u0131la bil\u0259r. Lakin 2019-cu ild\u0259 onlar\u0131n çoxunun nec\u0259 istifad\u0259 oluna bil\u0259c\u0259yini d\u0259 d\u0259qiq mü\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k ç\u0259tindir. Ancaq, neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin h\u0259l\u0259 bir neç\u0259 ay 50 dollardan da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dem\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas verir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, OPEK v\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n hasilat\u0131 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmas\u0131 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r deyil. Rusiya v\u0259 OPEK dekabr ay\u0131n\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 raz\u0131l\u0131\u011fa g\u0259ldil\u0259r. Yanvar ay\u0131nda qüvv\u0259y\u0259 min\u0259c\u0259k hasilat azald\u0131lmas\u0131na gör\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 sutkada 400 min barrel, Rusiya is\u0259 228 min barrel hasilat\u0131 azaldacaqlar. R\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r\u0259 diqq\u0259tl\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r salsaq, AB\u015e-\u0131n iyun-noyabr aylar\u0131 üzr\u0259 hasilat\u0131 sutkada 1 milyon barrel art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 halda, Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131n\u0131n göst\u0259ril\u0259n miqdarlarda hasilat\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli görünmür. Bu bazarda qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min etm\u0259k üçün kifay\u0259t deyil. Qiym\u0259t azalmas\u0131n\u0131n dig\u0259r bir s\u0259b\u0259bi d\u0259 2019-cu ild\u0259 dünyada neft\u0259 olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. T\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 dünya iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda geril\u0259m\u0259 il\u0259 \u0259sasland\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259r. Bu xüsusil\u0259 inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan ölk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 \u015famil olunur”.<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisadç\u0131-ekspert bildirir ki, bütün qeyd etdikl\u0259ri g\u0259l\u0259n ilin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 üçün neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin 40-58 dollar aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011fa \u0259sas verir: “Bir nüans\u0131 da n\u0259z\u0259riniz\u0259 çatd\u0131r\u0131m ki, S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 2019-cu il üçün dövl\u0259t büdc\u0259si x\u0259rcl\u0259rini \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (295 milyard dollarad\u0259k) planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b. X\u0259rcl\u0259rin qar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 üçün g\u0259r\u0259k S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131 neftin barrelini 85-95 dollara sats\u0131n. S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131n\u0131n öz büdc\u0259sini balansla\u015fd\u0131rmas\u0131 üçün neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 t\u0259dbirl\u0259r gör\u0259c\u0259yi d\u0259 söyl\u0259nilir. Ancaq, bu söyl\u0259ntil\u0259rin realla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dü\u015fünmür\u0259m. 2018-ci ilin yanvar-sentyabr aylar\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan Respublikas\u0131 Dövl\u0259t Neft Fondunun büdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259ri 14 437,2 milyon manat t\u0259\u015fkil edib. Bildiyiniz kimi 2018-ci ilin büdc\u0259sind\u0259 1 barrel neftin qiym\u0259ti 45 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 götürülmü\u015fdü. Ancaq il \u0259rzind\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 art\u0131m oldu v\u0259 bu da büdc\u0259d\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulan bir s\u0131ra layih\u0259l\u0259rin realla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min etdi. 2019-cu il üçün dövl\u0259t büdc\u0259si v\u0259 Dövl\u0259t Neft Fondunun g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin hesablanmas\u0131nda is\u0259 bir barrel xam neftin sat\u0131\u015f qiym\u0259ti 60 AB\u015e dollar\u0131 s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 q\u0259bul edilib. Neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin göst\u0259ril\u0259nd\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 büdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131na, dolay\u0131s\u0131 il\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259 bil\u0259r”.<\/p>\n

Altay Sosial-iqtisadi Ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar M\u0259rk\u0259zinin r\u0259hb\u0259ri, iqtisadç\u0131-ekspert Elçin Bayraml\u0131 bildirdi ki, son günl\u0259rd\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259 azalma mü\u015fahid\u0259 olunur. \u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, bu tendensiyan\u0131n davam etm\u0259si biz\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259r vurur, g\u0259lirl\u0259rimiz azal\u0131r: “H\u0259l\u0259lik qiym\u0259t kritik h\u0259dd\u0259 deyil, büdc\u0259d\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti optimist ssenari üzr\u0259 götürülüb – 60 dollar. Qiym\u0259t bu civarda qalsa dövl\u0259t büdc\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259hlük\u0259 yoxdur, lakin  neft Fondunun  g\u0259lirl\u0259ri olmayacaq. \u018fg\u0259r bundan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dü\u015fs\u0259, h\u0259m fond g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k, h\u0259m d\u0259 büdc\u0259nin g\u0259liri azalacaq. Lakin dü\u015fünür\u0259m ki, bu müv\u0259qq\u0259tidir”.<\/p>\n

\"\"E.Bayraml\u0131 bildirdi ki, neftin \u0259dal\u0259tli qiym\u0259ti 60-70 dollar aras\u0131ndad\u0131r: “OPEK v\u0259 dig\u0259r neft ixrac ed\u0259n ölk\u0259l\u0259r neftin qiym\u0259tinin bu h\u0259dd\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 dü\u015fm\u0259sind\u0259 maraql\u0131 deyill\u0259r v\u0259 bunun qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 almaq üçün müvafiq t\u0259dbirl\u0259r görürl\u0259r. B\u0259d ayaqda, yeni bir q\u0259rarla istehsal\u0131 daha da azaldacaqlar. Bu halda t\u0259l\u0259b t\u0259klifd\u0259n yuxar\u0131 olacaq v\u0259 qiym\u0259t bahala\u015facaq”.<\/p>\n

Ümumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, ekspert hesab edir ki, neftin qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t AB\u015e v\u0259 Britaniyan\u0131n ba\u015fç\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 qlobal birjalar\u0131 v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 sisteml\u0259rini \u0259lind\u0259 saxlayan qüvv\u0259l\u0259rin h\u0259yata keçirdiyi spekulyasiyalarla ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r, burada bazar \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ri heç bir rol oynam\u0131r. Lakin spekulyasiyalar da bir yer\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r keç\u0259rlidir”.   
\nG\u0259l\u0259n il qiym\u0259td\u0259 art\u0131m gözl\u0259diyini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 çatd\u0131ran E.Bayraml\u0131 deyir ki, \u0130rana qar\u015f\u0131 sanksiyalar, h\u0259mçinin Çinin v\u0259 Hindistan\u0131n neft\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n\u0131n durmadan artmas\u0131 qlobal bazarda neft\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bi art\u0131racaq: “\u018fslind\u0259, istehsal\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 neft ixrac ed\u0259n ölk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 z\u0259r\u0259rli deyil. Qiym\u0259t 60 olanda 100 barel sat\u0131b 6000 dollar \u0259ld\u0259 edirl\u0259rs\u0259, qiym\u0259t 80 olanda 80 barel sat\u0131b 7000-\u0259 yax\u0131n dollar \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. 10 dollar \u0259lav\u0259 qazanc olur, qalan 20 barel d\u0259 yataqda ehtiyat kimi qal\u0131r”. <\/p>\n

Ekspert qeyd edir ki, h\u0259tta neftin qiym\u0259ti pik h\u0259dd\u0259 olsa bel\u0259, hökum\u0259t neft\u0259 arxay\u0131n olmamal\u0131d\u0131r, qeyri-neft sektorunun inki\u015faf\u0131 sür\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir: “Xammal ixrac\u0131ndan qurtulmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Dig\u0259r sah\u0259l\u0259rin inki\u015faf\u0131n\u0131n vacibliyi bir yana, neftin özünü bel\u0259 xammal kimi yox, emal olunmu\u015f haz\u0131r m\u0259hsullar formas\u0131nda sataraq d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 daha çox g\u0259lir \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k mümkündür”.<\/p>\n

Könül Oruc <\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vüqar Bayramov: “G\u0259l\u0259n il büdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin formala\u015fmas\u0131nda neftin dünya bazar qiym\u0259ti h\u0259lledici olaraq qalacaq” Vüsal\u0259 \u018fhm\u0259dova: “Qiym\u0259t azalmas\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u0259b\u0259bi d\u0259 2019-cu ild\u0259 dünyada neft\u0259 olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r” Elçin Bayraml\u0131:…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":251278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=72862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72862\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/251278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=72862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=72862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=72862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}