{"id":44764,"date":"2017-03-17T12:11:33","date_gmt":"2017-03-17T08:11:33","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T20:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/?p=44764","title":{"rendered":"“Mart\u0131n sonu v\u0259 apreld\u0259 dollara t\u0259l\u0259bin artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir”<\/b><\/font>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Vüqar Bayramov: " Çünki infrastruktur x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259ri artacaq"<\/strong><\/p>\n

"Bu gün \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259timizi dü\u015fündür\u0259n \u0259sas iqtisadi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sidir des\u0259k yan\u0131lmar\u0131q . Dollarla\u015fma s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin 80 faizd\u0259n çox oldu\u011fu ölk\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259bii ki, manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 yana\u015fma heç d\u0259 birm\u0259nal\u0131 deyil. Amma \u0259sas odur ki, dollar\u0131 v\u0259 manat\u0131 olanlar\u0131n do\u011fru m\u0259lumat verm\u0259y\u0259 çal\u0131\u015f\u0131ls\u0131n. Sözsüz bu asan deyil. Ekspertl\u0259rin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olmayan çoxlu faktorlar var. Xüsus\u0259n d\u0259, bir s\u0131ra kommersiya banklar\u0131n spekulyativ davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 valyuta bazar\u0131nda son 2 ayda daha qabar\u0131q diqq\u0259ti c\u0259lb etdi". Bu bar\u0259d\u0259 iqtisadç\u0131 Vuqar Bayramov öz fikirl\u0259rini yaz\u0131b. O, deyib: "Amma fevral ay\u0131n\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 manat möhk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flayanda bunun bir neç\u0259 günlük deyil, bir müdd\u0259t davam ed\u0259c\u0259yi gözl\u0259nil\u0259n idi. Fevral\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 m\u0259tbuata aç\u0131qlamamda fevral v\u0259 mart\u0131n birinci yars\u0131s\u0131nda dollara t\u0259l\u0259bin azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rm\u0131\u015fd\u0131m. O zaman m\u0259n\u0259 müraci\u0259t ed\u0259n xeyili v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z v\u0259 h\u0259tta jurnalist dostlar\u0131m\u0131zdan da öz dollarlar\u0131n\u0131 1.90 kursu il\u0259 manata çevir\u0259nl\u0259r oldu. Dollar\u0131n ucuzula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzun müdd\u0259tli olub-olmamas\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131 olmayaraq t\u0259bii ki, yüks\u0259k kursla dollar\u0131 manata çevirm\u0259k v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 il\u0259 yenid\u0259n xarici valyuta almaq g\u0259lir dem\u0259kdir. \u015eadam ki, bunu ed\u0259 bil\u0259n dostlar\u0131m\u0131z oldu. Baha kursla dollar\u0131 sat\u0131b ucuz kursla yenid\u0259n alanda b\u0259zi banklar deyil, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131m\u0131z qazan\u0131r v\u0259 bu da \u0259n ideal variantd\u0131r".
\n\u0130qtisadç\u0131 bildirib ki, yanvar ay\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda h\u0259tta universitet mü\u0259lliml\u0259rind\u0259n biri m\u0259n\u0259 müraci\u0259t etdi ki, bankda i\u015fl\u0259y\u0259n qohumu bildirib ki, yanvar\u0131n sonunad\u0259k 1 dollar 3 manat olacaq. " \u0130zah etm\u0259y\u0259 çal\u0131\u015fd\u0131m ki, h\u0259tta manat\u0131n bazar d\u0259y\u0259ri 1 dollar 3 manat olsa da bel\u0259 bu m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259nin sosial t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259ri oldu\u011fundan 2017-ci ilin ilk ay\u0131nda buna imkan veril\u0259 bilm\u0259z. Neqativ informasiyaya inanan h\u0259min \u015f\u0259xs indi h\u0259r h\u0259rrac\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rini s\u0259birsizlikl\u0259 gözl\u0259yir ki, dollar\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si yenid\u0259n n\u0259 zaman yüks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k.
\nAyd\u0131nd\u0131r ki, manat\u0131n indiki m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si bazar kursu deyil. Bazar m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si al\u0131nanad\u0259k kurs f\u0259rqli istiqam\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. \u018fvv\u0259lki statusumda da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m kimi, manat bazas\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259hdudla\u015fmas\u0131, \u0259halinin bir qisminin dollar\u0131n daha çox ucuzla\u015faca\u011f\u0131ndan ehtiyatlanaraq öz valyutas\u0131n\u0131 satmas\u0131 v\u0259 el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 Beyn\u0259lxalq Bank\u0131n sa\u011flamla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na v\u0259 dollara olan t\u0259l\u0259binin öd\u0259nilm\u0259sin\u0259 ayr\u0131ca bax\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 üçün manat möhk\u0259ml\u0259nir. T\u0259bii ki, bu faktorlar olmasayd\u0131 o zaman milli valyuta son ay yar\u0131mda möhk\u0259ml\u0259n\u0259 bilm\u0259zdi. Bu kontekstd\u0259 \u0259halinin dollara t\u0259l\u0259bi d\u0259 azal\u0131b. T\u0259bii ki, \u0259g\u0259r M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank manat bazas\u0131n\u0131 yenid\u0259n geni\u015fl\u0259ndirm\u0259y\u0259, dövriyy\u0259y\u0259 yenid\u0259n manat\u0131n daxil olmas\u0131na ba\u015flasa o zaman dollar\u0131n kursu yenid\u0259n yüks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259l\u0259lik bu edilmir. Amma ayd\u0131nd\u0131r ki, orta v\u0259 uzun müdd\u0259tli dövrd\u0259 manat\u0131n bazas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259si qaç\u0131lmaz olacaq. Y\u0259ni, güman olunur ki, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n manat bazas\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 siyas\u0259t\u0131 q\u0131sa müdd\u0259tli dövr\u0259 hesablan\u0131b. Yen\u0259 d\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r qeyd etdiyim kimi mart\u0131n sonu v\u0259 apreld\u0259 dollara t\u0259l\u0259bin artaca\u011f\u0131 gözl\u0259nilir. Çünki infrastruktur x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259ri artacaq. Kursun nec\u0259 olmas\u0131nda is\u0259 yen\u0259 d\u0259 manat bazas\u0131 v\u0259 el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 bazar t\u0259klifi h\u0259lledici olacaq. Bütövlükd\u0259 is\u0259, iyun, avqust v\u0259 dekabr aylar\u0131nda dollara t\u0259l\u0259b yenid\u0259n artacaq. Xüsus\u0259n d\u0259, dekabr ay\u0131nda t\u0259l\u0259bin daha çox artaca\u011f\u0131 gözl\u0259nilir. Neftin qiym\u0259ti, idxal, Dövl\u0259t Neft Fondundan transferl\u0259rin növb\u0259ti dövrd\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sin\u0259 birba\u015fa t\u0259sir göst\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k. Neftin qiym\u0259ti azalarsa bu fondun potensial transferl\u0259rinin h\u0259cmini azaldacaq v\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sini qorumaq xeyili ç\u0259tinl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. Neftin qiym\u0259ti h\u0259tta orta müdd\u0259tli dövr üçün manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si üçün çox vacibdir. Bu faktora daimi diqq\u0259t ay\u0131rmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r".
\nM\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259nin nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259yini n\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n mü\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k olar ki, valyutas\u0131 olanlar itirm\u0259sinl\u0259r? Bir s\u0131ra kommersiya banklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259sir imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n çoxald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq q\u0131sa müdd\u0259tli dövr üçün m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259d\u0259ki d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq olar. \u0130qtisadç\u0131 bildirib:"\u018fg\u0259r dollar\u0131n manata r\u0259smi kursu v\u0259 ya banklardak\u0131 al\u0131\u015f-sat\u0131\u015f m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si yüks\u0259lirs\u0259, o zaman dem\u0259li növb\u0259ti h\u0259ft\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 xarici valyutalar\u0131n kursunun artaca\u011f\u0131 daha çox gözl\u0259nil\u0259ndir. O zaman dollar almaq olar. V\u0259 o art\u0131m 2-3 h\u0259ft\u0259d\u0259n sonra dollar\u0131n yenid\u0259n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 il\u0259 mü\u015fahid\u0259 edil\u0259c\u0259ks\u0259 dem\u0259li, növb\u0259ti h\u0259ft\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 manat\u0131n möhk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si etimal\u0131 yüks\u0259kdir. Bu halda, valyutan\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259k olar. Dem\u0259li, art\u0131q bazar özü 2-3 h\u0259ft\u0259lik v\u0259 ya 1 ayl\u0131q mesaj\u0131 ver\u0259 bilir. Bütün hallarda, son ill\u0259r qeyd etdiyim kimi, pul valyuta s\u0259b\u0259ti formas\u0131nda saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131 daha m\u0259qs\u0259d\u0259 uy\u011fundur: 60 (v\u0259 ya 50) faiz dollar, 20 faiz avro v\u0259 20 (v\u0259 ya 30) faiz manat. Bu s\u0131\u011fortalanm\u0131\u015f valyuta s\u0259b\u0259tidir. Valyuta bazar\u0131ndak\u0131 tendensiyalar\u0131n d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olaraq bu faizl\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r. Dem\u0259li, f\u0259rqli m\u0259lumatlar fonundan sizl\u0259rin d\u0259 öz q\u0259rarlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n y\u0131\u011f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 valyuta riskl\u0259rind\u0259n qoruya bil\u0259r".<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vüqar Bayramov: " Çünki infrastruktur x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259ri artacaq" "Bu gün \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259timizi dü\u015fündür\u0259n \u0259sas iqtisadi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin nec\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sidir des\u0259k yan\u0131lmar\u0131q . Dollarla\u015fma s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin 80 faizd\u0259n çox oldu\u011fu ölk\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259bii ki,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":251278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/251278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}