{"id":196782,"date":"2024-02-19T22:49:11","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T18:49:11","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-29T20:00:00","slug":"","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/?p=196782","title":{"rendered":"Az\u0259rbaycanda martda dollar bahala\u015facaq? –"},"content":{"rendered":"

Az\u0259rbaycanda fevral ay\u0131nda keçiril\u0259n h\u0259rraclarda dollara t\u0259l\u0259bat k\u0259skin art\u0131b. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank bildirib ki, bu, \u0259sas\u0259n bir s\u0131ra dövl\u0259t layih\u0259l\u0259rinin icras\u0131 v\u0259 öz\u0259l sektorun idxal t\u0259l\u0259bi (o cüml\u0259d\u0259n \u0259rzaq v\u0259 k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rrüfat\u0131 m\u0259hsullar\u0131) il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/strong><\/p>\n

"2024-cü ilin öt\u0259n dövründ\u0259 valyuta h\u0259rraclar\u0131n\u0131n 55 %-d\u0259 t\u0259klif t\u0259l\u0259bi üst\u0259l\u0259yib. Valyuta bazar\u0131 profisitli t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 f\u0259aliyy\u0259t göst\u0259rir. Bu meyill\u0259rin davam etm\u0259si hal\u0131nda 2024-cü ilin sonuna da cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar hesab\u0131n\u0131n profisitli olaca\u011f\u0131 gözl\u0259nilir", – dey\u0259 aç\u0131qlamada qeyd olunub.<\/p>\n

Dollara olan t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n artmas\u0131 v\u0259 dig\u0259r ox\u015far iqtisadi x\u0259b\u0259rl\u0259r c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 ajiotaj yarad\u0131b. M\u0259tbuatda devalvasiya olaca\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 iddialar yay\u0131l\u0131b. B\u0259zi k\u0259siml\u0259r devalvasiyan\u0131n mart ay\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dü\u015fünür.<\/p>\n

Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, Az\u0259rbaycanda 2015-ci ild\u0259 iki d\u0259f\u0259 devalvasiya ba\u015f verib v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan manat\u0131 dig\u0259r valyutalar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0259skin ucula\u015f\u0131b.<\/p>\n

B\u0259s, h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n d\u0259, devalvasiya gözl\u0259nilirmi? \u018fg\u0259r devalvasiya olacaqsa, bunun t\u0259sirl\u0259ri n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r s\u0259rt olacaq Ümumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, mart ay\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 iqtisadi proqnozlar n\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir?<\/p>\n

M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 Modern.az-a dan\u0131\u015fan iqtisadç\u0131 ekspert Eld\u0259niz \u018fmirov devalvasiya il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 birm\u0259nal\u0131 fikir bildirm\u0259yin mümkün olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirib.<\/p>\n

"Ümumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, son dön\u0259ml\u0259r dollara olan t\u0259l\u0259bin artmas\u0131 devalvasiya il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 gözl\u0259ntil\u0259ri yaradan \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259rd\u0259ndir. Lakin manata olan t\u0259zyiqin o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 yüks\u0259k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n ehtiyyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r çox olmas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, dey\u0259 bil\u0259rik ki, ortada ciddi t\u0259hlük\u0259 yoxdur. Amma bütün hallarda bel\u0259 bir q\u0259rar\u0131n verilm\u0259si M\u0259rk\u0259zi Banka aiddir. Buna baxmayaraq, ehtimallar devalvasiya il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 böyük gözl\u0259ntinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 göst\u0259rir. Lakin yen\u0259 deyir\u0259m ki, q\u0259rar\u0131n verilm\u0259si birba\u015fa M\u0259rk\u0259zi Banka aid oldu\u011fu üçün birm\u0259nal\u0131 olaraq fikir söyl\u0259m\u0259k mümkün deyil".<\/p>\n

Ekspert mart ay\u0131 üçün iqtisadi proqnozlardan da dan\u0131\u015f\u0131b:<\/p>\n

"Mart ay\u0131nda iqtisadi durum h\u0259r hans\u0131 formada cari aydan f\u0259rql\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Ümumi dinamika davam edir. Devalvasiya olmayaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259 yax\u0131n bir neç\u0259 ayda ist\u0259r iqtisadi art\u0131mda, ist\u0259rs\u0259 d\u0259 dig\u0259r iqtisadi göst\u0259ricil\u0259rd\u0259 ciddi d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r gözl\u0259nimir. Devalvasiyan\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 t\u0259bii ki, mütl\u0259q bir s\u0131ra istiqam\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 f\u0259rqli dinamika mü\u015fahid\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259r".<\/p>\n

Dig\u0259r bir iqtisadi ekspert Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli is\u0259 vur\u011fulay\u0131b ki, Az\u0259rbaycanda indiki \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 devalvasiyan\u0131n olmas\u0131 mümkün deyil:<\/p>\n

"Birincisi ona gör\u0259 ki Az\u0259rbaycanda manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si inzibati qaydada t\u0259nziml\u0259nir. Dünya bazarlar\u0131nda birjalarda ged\u0259n prosesl\u0259rl\u0259 manat\u0131n heç bir \u0259laq\u0259si yoxdur. Hökum\u0259tin v\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n inzibati t\u0259nziml\u0259m\u0259 mexanizmi mövcuddur. Ona gör\u0259 d\u0259 milli m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 hans\u0131sa xarici \u015foklardan, faktorlardan as\u0131l\u0131 deyil. Manat\u0131n as\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu yegan\u0259 amil neftin qiym\u0259tidir. Neftin qiym\u0259ti d\u0259 kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r komfortlu zonadad\u0131r, haz\u0131rda onun qiym\u0259ti 80 dollar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. H\u0259l\u0259 ki bununla ba\u011fl\u0131 probblem yoxdur".<\/p>\n

N.C\u0259f\u0259rli manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259lik sabit qalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 söyl\u0259yib:<\/p>\n

"Bu il ard-arda seçkil\u0259r olacaq. Y\u0259ni prezident seçkil\u0259rind\u0259n sonra parlament v\u0259 b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259 seçkil\u0259ri d\u0259 olmal\u0131d\u0131r. B\u0259lk\u0259, referandum da oldu. Bu bax\u0131mdan manatla \u0259laq\u0259dar n\u0259s\u0259 ciddi add\u0131m at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dü\u015fünmür\u0259m. Amma bu o dem\u0259k deyil ki, manat\u0131n s\u0259viyy\u0259si daim indiki kimi qalacaq. Birinci m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 biz bunu gördük. 2010-2015-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si sabit qald\u0131. Sonra üçpill\u0259li devalvasiya m\u0259cburiyy\u0259ti yarand\u0131.2025-ci ilin sonu 2026-c\u0131 ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 d\u0259 bel\u0259 bir add\u0131m\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 yüks\u0259kdir. 2024-cü il \u0259rzind\u0259 is\u0259 bel\u0259 add\u0131m\u0131n at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na inanm\u0131ram".<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Az\u0259rbaycanda fevral ay\u0131nda keçiril\u0259n h\u0259rraclarda dollara t\u0259l\u0259bat k\u0259skin art\u0131b. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank bildirib ki, bu, \u0259sas\u0259n bir s\u0131ra dövl\u0259t layih\u0259l\u0259rinin icras\u0131 v\u0259 öz\u0259l sektorun idxal t\u0259l\u0259bi (o cüml\u0259d\u0259n \u0259rzaq v\u0259 k\u0259nd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":251278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=196782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196782\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/251278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=196782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=196782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucnoqta.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=196782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}